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Week 9 is nearly upon us, and it's bye bye to the Bye week, to paraphrase the only N'Sync song I ever liked.

The Bye week is a pretty cool idea - the NFL season gets stretched to 18 weeks, and teams get a much-needed break. But I do get tired of figuring things on a 1/2 game basis when comparing teams or a full game difference when comparing stats. All that ends after this week. But first, on with the show:

Atlanta 34, Detroit 27 - I think the Lions might actually make this close, but Michael/Mike/Michael Vick and the Falcons are as red-hot as the red in their uniforms (by the way, the red jersey/white pants combo is the only look that really works with those duds). Since it's November, it's time to start voicing my annual complaint about the Lions being on TV on Thanksgiving Day. They are way out of contention nearly every year, and yet the NFL continues the "tradition" of sticking us with them while we dine on turkey. This year is especially bad - the woeful Dolphins come to Detroit.

Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17 - Ocho takes his show on the road. The Bengals faced two tough opponents (Carolina, Atlanta) at home and split. Brian Billick had one of the best lines from last week - when asked if he was pleased with his play-calling against the Saints, he said that he especially liked the two interception returns for TDs that he called. 

Washington 24, Dallas 20 - Everyone's high on Antonio Romo and the Kissing Tuna right now, so what better way to bring them back down to earth than a loss in the nation's capital. I have no real faith in the Sndyerskins; this is just wishful thinking on my part. I root for the Skins twice each season, and you can easily guess when. Oh, sometimes, I root for them vs the G-Men too.

Green Bay 20, Buffalo 17 - The Pack's been surging, thanks to a string of wins against lousy teams. They beat a one-win team last week, and ditto the week before. Now they play another bad team, with a chance to go 4-4. Their running game has rebounded, and that's important when playing in Buffalo.

NY Giants 31, Houston 17 - The Giants get caught looking ahead.

Chicago 24, Miami 0 - The Bears get caught looking ahead.

St. Louis 31, Kansas City 28 - The battle of Missouri, this may have represented a chance for the NFL to create a new rivalry during realignment. But alas, there's a bit too much tradition keeping Kansas City in the AFC or the Rams in the NFC. This could be the most exciting game of the day, as the Rams, one of this years best-bang-for-the-entertainment-buck teams playing a potent offensive team on the other side of the ball.

Tampa Bay 19, New Orleans 17 - My Upset Special Of The Week, served with a plate of Mexican fare in the Big Sombrero. The Bucs win it on Matt Bryant's 72-yard field goal. Tampa Bay's next home game is November 13th against Washington. Bryant will win that one on an 82-yarder.

Jacksonville 22, Tennessee 20 - Remember the Titans? They used to have the Jaggies number. They may be on the rise again, but it's gonna take time. Meanwhile,  the disgusting Adam 'Spitman' Jones must sit because he likes spreading his DNA the sloppy way. 

Minnesota 34, San Francisco 24 - Remember the Niners? They used to be good, really, really good. They had a great coach, a great quartback, great receivers, and a guy named Ronnie Lott who could really bring it. Then the salary-cap storm hit. Now they have nothing.

San Diego 21, Cleveland 9 - I doubt there'll be any  game-deciding controversies late in this game, so the refs can rest easy about getting out of the Dawg Pound alive. A small soap opera undercurrent has Kellen Can't Shut Up Winslow saying he's the league's best tight end. But since Antonio Gates doesn't play defense, this isn't a big deal.

Denver 20, Pittsburgh 13 - There, I did it. I picked against the Steelers for the first time this season. Now watch 'em win the darned thing.

New England 27, Indianapolis 24 - I do wonder how this game always seems to end up at Foxboro. The Colts would do well to assure themselves of home advantage come January, because I have a sneaking suspicion that these two shall meet again.

Seattle 26, Oakland 17 - Oh my what a wonderful MNF matchup we have here! To top it off, we get no Shaun Madden Curse Alexander and no Matt Hasselback. I'm planning to go out on Friday and Saturday nights, and watch as much of the Sunday Nighter as I can. Come Monday, I can catch up on my winks.

I'm picking only straight up this week. The point-spread thing got kinda complicated, as one game ended in a tie against the spread, for example, and I hate ties. I also hate ice hockey's "Overtime Losses", which is essentially a tie in disguise, and the eventual overtime loser gets a point. What other sport rewards a loss? But I digress. On with week 9....

I watched two games in near-entirety yesterday, so for today I'll comment only on those. Tomorrow, my summary of the rest of week eight.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, that "mentally weak" team (according to Ron Jaworski), came to the windy Linc yesterday ready to run. And run they did, 46 times for 209 yards. Hey, I like the Eagles. But I must say, what the Jags did yesterday was a thing a beauty.

I'm an old-schooler. Yeah, I like the Eagles and 49ers*, two West Coast offenses. But in terms of tactics, I just love the running game. It's the mentality of it that I dig. Pound, pound, pound. Control the clock. Play defense with your offense by keeping the other offense on the sideline. Knock people off the ball. Get your offensive line moving forward rather than backward. The Jags did all that yesterday. I didn't enjoy seeing it done to the home green, especially on the home green, but I admired it.

When the Birds finally got hold of the ball, they did little with it. Dropped passes were again a problem. They tried running somewhat, but with little success. They're so greared to pass that there's little committment to the run, and as a result, the Eagles don't beat on anybody. And yesterday they waited for the big play, which never came.

Colts-Broncos: What was Dwight Freeney thinking yesterday? And who's coaching this guy? The Broncos were ripping off huge runs, tearing the Colts D apart, and Freeney is charging upfield, toward the quarterback, on every play, totally taking himself out of position. And this guy's an all-Pro?

The Broncos and Jags both ran the ball extremely well yesterday. So why did the Broncos lose while the Jags won? For starters, Denver's Darrent Williams could not cover Reggie Wayne. Also, the Colts ran the ball pretty well themselves (contrary to popular belief, the Colts are not a pass-wacky team. They run the ball more than they pass). Also, Denver ran the ball a little too well. They plowed through the Colts with such ease that their drives were not really time-consuming, hence Peyton Manning was back on the field in short order and doing his carving work.

So whereas McNabb was ineffective, short-circuited by a solid defense (that was without three starters, by the way) no run threat and several mistakes, Manning flourished because of effective running by Joseph Addai and precise play by the entire offensive unit. As McNabb was harrassed and hurried and sacked four times, Manning's white uniform had nary a grass stain on it.

Tomorrow, the rest of week eight. And like last week, my picking wasn't pretty or precise.

* Contrary to popular belief, the 49ers in their Joe Montana heyday were not a pass-wacky West Coast offensive team. They ran the ball often and ran it well.

Sunny, High Winds, High 53

Sunny High 49

In the NFL production of Cats, the Panthers lost for several reasons, but one big factor was a dropped interception that gave the Bengals another chance to score. This is something I've harped on, and yet I hardly ever hear it from the talking-heads - namely, that defensive backs drop too many potential interceptions.

It was a dropped INT that cost the Bengals dearly in Super Bowl XXIII.  Most people forget about that, since the John Taylor touchdown from Joe Montana is what dominates film footage from that game. But Bengals' DB Lewis Billups dropped a sure interception, and Jerry Rice scored on the next play. With far less at stake but under similar circumstances, things went the Bengals' way yesterday.

In other action:

 - I logged Skins as done when they sheepishly tried a long figgie when down 33-14 with 10 minutes left. Sure, the logic is that if you get down by 16, you can still score two TDs and two 2-pt conversions. But did Joe Gibbs really think that the Colts were somehow going to be stoned by that leaky defense which had just allowed 20 third-quarter points? Boom went the kick, which was wide, and the game was effectively over. The Skins tried to create Pretzel Manning in the first half, but that didn't work either, though it certainly looked uncomfy for Peyton. Then he shredded the Skins.

 - The Chargers and the Chiefs both have guys with initials LT, but it was the skinny placekicker LT that upstaged the Chargers versatile running back. Lawrence Tynes kicked a 53 yard figgie to win it, shaking off a 5 yard penalty which negated his 48-yarder moments earlier. The other LT caught a TD pass and threw one, but it wasn't quite enough.

 - What to make of the Jacksonville Jaguars? They were throttled by the Team That Passed On Reggie 27-7. The non-Reggies held the Jags to 220 yards. Jax appears to be one of those up-down-up teams, which does not bode well, since they visit Philadelphia on Sunday.

 - The Packers had three INTs going into the game with Miami. Now they have six. And Nick Saban decided to effectively pass all blame to his players in the post game press conference. Saban is fast becoming one of the NFL's best postgame fodder guys, just behind the likes of Dennis Green, Jim Mora Sr., and Herm Edwards. Keep it up Nick, and you'll get your wish and return to college real soon.

 - You have to go back to 1934 to find a team that won five straight games in which they scored no more than 17 points. The Denver Broncos now share that distinction. But let's be realistic - sure, their D looks great, but they're playing such non-juggernauts and the Browns, Raiders, and Ravens.

 - Have you noticed all the long, game-winning figgies lately? The Falcons should have had one yesterday from 56, but the Jutting Jaw signaled timeout just before the big boom. No matter, since Old Man Andersen then put in the winner from 32. History note: Andersen has figgies of 59 yards (1995) and 60 yards (1991) notched in his belt. But he's a really old man now, so it was Micheal Konen who popped the 56 yarder that Cowher managed to negate. The Falcons simply wheel Andersen in for the shorter stuff.

 - What happened at Qwacky Qwest Stadium yesterday? The Vikes wisely left their purple pants at home and came to put a whipping on the Seahawks, breaking their 12-game winning streak at home. The Blue Men Group looked, well, like The Blue Men Group. Suddenly that post-Super Bowl malaise seems to have settled on Seattle.

 - Now we officially know how that MNF loss to the Bears affected the Cardinals.

 - The Pats drilled the Jills yesterday in one of the few games I picked correctly both straight up and against the spread. Note to Chris Berman: The Bills really don't circle the wagons anymore. In fact, they stopped doing so after Jim Kelly retired.

- The Jets discovered a running back yesterday, Leon Washington, who may be just the guy to carry the load until Curtis Martin comes back, if he ever does.

Since I stayed awake for three quarters of the MNF game (a feat for me, given the fact that I usually find the matchups boring) I'll make a separate entry on that a bit later. Plus I'll reveal my won-lost prediction total for the weekend; suffice to say, it wasn't pretty.

 Michael Westbrook had 213 yards in total offense, but I blame him for the loss to the Bay Bucs. Michael, you scored too soon!

Just kidding, obviously. But I do wish Westy could have danced around the goal line, and maybe eaten a sandwich or something, before finally crossing it after leaving several Bucs defenders behind on that very nice late TD that should have given the Birds the win.

I just had a creepy feeling when some ticks were still left, and then the Bucs got a good kickoff return to their 37, not a bad place to start a last-ditch drive with 22 seconds left.

Still, I told my daughter (who was also in some distress as, adorned in her Julius Peppers Panthers jersey, she awaited the outcome of the NFL version of Cats), I'd go out to my garden, dig up a worm, and consume it happily if Matt Bryant somehow made that 62 yard figgie. No way he makes it. Sure, the air is hot, which gives the ball more lift and all that. But, we're talking Tom Dempsey territory, for God's sake.

As for the rest of the game, again, where to begin? The green guys have yet to play four quarters of good football in any game this year. And yet, they could be 7-0 had just a few things gone differently. But in sports, as in life, you can't dwell on what ifs. It what does happen that counts. Okay, enough philosophical jibber-jabber.

Dropped passes, brain freezes despite Death Valley temperatures, and the other Barber twin all factored in this loss. Sure, some good stuff happened, and after all the bad stuff, the game was still winnable if it weren't for Matt Bryant suddenly becoming Superman.

Luckily, my daughter is not holding me to that worm promise, especially after her Panthers lost as well, in a fashion almost equally agonizing

Week 7 gives us several good encounters, following a sixth week that left something to be desired in terms of compelling matchups. Such is the NFL in 2006 - there's just too many bad teams. On with the picks.....but note please that I am going to try making picks by the point spread, rather than simply straight up; home team in caps:

CINCINNATI is a 5 point favorite over Carolina: I begin with the NFL equivalent of Cats. In a dogfight, the nod goes to the Panthers. I'm less than sure about this one, but the Panthers are a different team with Steve Smith around, while the Bengals have three receivers sidelined. Pick: Panthers

Philadelphia 5 over TAMPA BAY. The Birds continue their southern swing, hoping it doesn't become a southern swoon. The quarterback advantage for the Eagles is huge, what with the Bucs starting that Gradkowski guy, who tells us not to prounouce the k. He's actually playing fairly well, but I look for the Eagles to win by 10 points. Pick: Eagles

MIAMI 5 over Green Bay. The Dolphins lost a lot when Scott Linehan left to coach the Rams. They gained little when Mike Mularkey, former Jills coach, was hired to take his place. Pick: Packers

NY JETS 3.5 over Detroit. This should be a close game. I'm very tempted to pick the Lions to win outright. I will take them with the points. Pick: Lions

Pittsburgh 2.5 over ATLANTA - Ben Roethlisberger is 7-0 against NFC teams. Pick: Steelers

Denver 5 over CLEVELAND - Denver's been winning, but not convicingly. I think they'll win, but I like the Browns with the points. Pick: Browns

New England 5.5 over BUFFALO - On opening day in New England, the Jills nearly pulled what would have been a big upset, losing by the margin of a safety when J.P. Losman unwisely backpedaled toward his own end zone. Calling plays that incorporate a seven-step drop near the goal line is hazardous, so blame the coach, Dick Jauron. This time the Pats win with room to spare. Pick: Patriots

San Diego 5.5 over KANSAS CITY - Last season, the Chargers faint hopes fizzled at Arrowhead on a rainy day. This year, the Bolts look better, and the Chiefs are still without Trent Green. But I think this one will be close, so considering the points...Pick: Chiefs

Jacksonville 9.5 over HOUSTON - You know your season isn't going well wen you're a 10-point doggie at home. Look for the Jaggies to run wild....Pick Jaguars.

INDIANAPOLIS 9 over Washington - The Sndyerskins are sliding fast, but something tells me that they might just make this close. Colts win, but Skins cover.

SEATTLE 7 over Minnesota - I see a blowout here. The Vikes are not much of a road warrior bunch, so unlike the Norsemen of the past. And Seattle is very tough at Qwacky Qwest Field. I like the Blue Men Group big.

Arizona 3 over OAKLAND - After what happened Monday Night, this game is actually getting some attention. People want to see how the Cards react after that loss to Chicago and Dennis Screamin' Green's postgame tirade. They'll win, though that ain't sayin' much. Pick: Cardinals

DALLAS 3.5 over NY Giants - The Monday Nighter, which holds interest for those who follow the Eagles. The Giants sacked Michael/Mike/Michael Vick seven times last week, so one would think that their newly awakened pass rush would sack a statue like Drew Bledsoe about 14 times. Just extrapolatin'...Pick: Giants.

Cloudy High 71

"The Bears are what we thought they were!" said Dennis Screamin' Green following the MNF game. Hey Screamin' here's a thought: the Cardinals are what we thought they were too - losers.

Repeat after me: They are the Arizona Cardinals. That's why the Bears were able to come back from a 20-0 hole, completely dominated, and still win. Sure the Cards were just a missed figgie away from winning, as yes, the Bears look vulnerable against teams that are able to punch back, but the the bottom line is that these are the Arizona Cardinals.

Three winless teams got off the canvas (and one, Tampa Bay, did so in highly controversial fashion, namely, a roughing the passer call that was the worst call I may have ever seen), a relief to the NFL powers that be who want parity, parity, parity. Have you noticed just how awful several NFL teams have looked thus far? My theory: 32 teams with 53-man rosters means a watering down of talent. Add in big rookie contracts - paying novices more than established contributors - and you have a formula for failure. How many great teams are there? Now name the bad teams and you'll see what I mean.

Individual game reviews:

- Detroit won by the generic home teams wins 20-17 score. In terms of probability, Home Teams wins 20-17 is the most likely outcome if you're trying to pick exact final scores. It was the Lions first win.

- Tennessee struck a blow for the NFC East by beating the Snyderskins, and another winless team is off the hook, against a team that seems to be backpedaling quickly.

- Tampa Bay beat Cincinnati. The Bengals' Marvin Lewis said afterward that he guesses that Quarterbacks "must be cuddled to the ground". Marvin, didn't you see the red flags hagging from the QB's waist?

- Carolina beat the Edgar Allen Poes. NFL defensive coordinators need to adopt Seattle's 'Cover Steve' defense, used with great success in last season's NFC title game, because lord knows no other scheme seems to work against Steve Smith.

- Dallas won the battle of Texas, which, for a big state isn't much of a battle. The Player, meanwhile, said "trust me". I don't trust anyone who needs to ask for it.

- The G-Men handed a loss to Michael/Mike/Michael Vick and the Falcons, beating them at their own game. The Giants to their credit unleased a punishing running attack on the team that usually does just that.

- Seattle beat the Rams in what was the best game of the day. At least the Rams got to celebrate for a few seconds as they figured 10 seconds were going to be run off on the spike play.

- Pittsburgh looked like the ring-bearing champs they are supposed to be. Memo to Troy Polamalu - get a haircut. Funny coinky-dink that Larry Johnson was involved in two controversial tackles in the past two games.

- Generic Score alert: The Jets won at home 20-17 against the Mammals.

- The 49ers look hide-your-eyes bad again this year. Oh how the mighty have fallen!

- Denver beat another hide-your-eyes bad team, Oakland 13-3. I predicted a Broncos shutout and almost got one. The Broncos are headed toward the AFC Playoffs. And once there, they will suffer yet another post-Elway era defeat.

On the week I was 9-5, and on the season my winning pct is now .693 with a 61-27 record.

Next week: The Eagles travel to Florida to meet the Bucs for a game of Cuddle The Quarterback. 

Sunny High 62

Where to begin on yesterday's Eagles loss to the Saints? After all, there seemed to be breakdowns in all phases as the Birds didn't exactly swoop into the Superdome. They looked flat at the start, were hampered by a few bummer calls and no-calls (like McNabb getting steamrolled by Hollis Thomas when he was already down), a very costly late penalty, a blown coverage (again) by Michael Lewis, a special teams gaff, and an inability to convert on third down (3-10), which is getting to be a very bad habit.

Sure, some good stuff happened. Despite all the bad goings-on, the Eagles seized a 24-17 lead with 21 unanswered points. Reggie Brown had two TDs, one on a nicely executed pitch from McNabb, who then became a fullback. Let's call him DMac Strong.

Once again, there was little committment to the run on offense, which actually worked well when the Eagles bothered with it. On the defensive side, the Eagles recorded no sacks and allowed the United Saints to convert third downs at a 50% rate (8-16).

While some of the problems yesterday can be attributed to single-game hiccups, there are worrisome trends that are becoming manifest. The lack of committment to the ground game, the lack of third-down efficiency, and the resultant lack of ball-control that keeps an offense in the right frame of mind while keeping a defense fresh are all problems that the Eagles coaching staff needs to address while the team is still a contender. Some of these problems are part-and-parcel to the Andy Reid era. Others are more recent. Whatever the case, they need to be solved.